Australian A League · resolved market
Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x176961aabd4a6e0148a8f9a759571657de08e3318edc46cb6c97002a32b6573b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Melbourne Victory FCof Melbourne Victory FC, Macarthur FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,642 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bfd…ff86backed Melbourne Victory FC | 32c | 447.13$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Macarthur FC | 63c | 297.76$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.22 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Macarthur FC | 64c | 170.73$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.18 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…3e44backed Macarthur FC | 68c | 152.41$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb1…8ec8backed Macarthur FC | 68c | 150.83$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Melbourne Victory FC | 33c | 150$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45a…46adbacked Macarthur FC | 68c | 143.89$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Melbourne Victory FC | 33c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Melbourne Victory FC | 42c | 68.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…b56cbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…044bbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 40c | 58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +6.2wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Macarthur FC | 54c | 45.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Macarthur FC | 67c | 44.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 70c | 41.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Melbourne Victory FC | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Macarthur FC | 67c | 37.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Macarthur FC | 67c | 28.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…4f2dbacked Macarthur FC | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…f4e6backed Melbourne Victory FC | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Macarthur FC | 59c | 20.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)this page
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-2.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.