MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad2bc759bec0f44c39301a151786c60044b24c7a15174f252a81b00ed4e5b564
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof New York Mets, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Washington Nationals | 78c | 586.04$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 310.41$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed New York Mets | 40c | 306.21$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.48 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed New York Mets | 19c | 298.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 217.85$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.39 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Washington Nationals | 75c | 191.17$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed New York Mets | 23c | 172.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed New York Mets | 41c | 170.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed New York Mets | 42c | 135.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed New York Mets | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 109.78$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…e8ccbacked New York Mets | 25c | 105.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Mets | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Washington Nationals | 59c | 51.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…77dabacked New York Mets | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked New York Mets | 40c | 32.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Washington Nationals | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…4213backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York MetsWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 13.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 14.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.