TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$412,280
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$415,627

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $412,280 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x777d…5143backed Under53c157,227$83,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83,329.498856.8%50 W · 38 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+20%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Over47c150,000$70,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79,50041149.1%202 W · 209 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986b…12e9backed Over49c114,790$56,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,594.932250%11 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Under51c50,000$25,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,5007550.7%38 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x22f9…f814backed Under51c41,176$21,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,0001050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under51c30,000$15,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,3001,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Under51c22,460$11,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,454.611256.3%63 W · 49 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under50c22,211$11,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,059.212,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Over48c10,198$4,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,284.822047.7%105 W · 115 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Under51c8,040$4,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,100.423538.3%90 W · 145 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under51c7,876$4,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,016.7692054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked Under53c5,553$2,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,942.9112247.5%58 W · 64 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under53c5,537$2,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,934.194,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Under54c5,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70021748.4%105 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Over46c4,644$2,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,507.530647.4%145 W · 161 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Under52c3,300$1,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,71617248.8%84 W · 88 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under51c3,266$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,665.661,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under55c3,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.981,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Over45c2,868$1,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,576.862,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over46c2,340$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,265.442,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Under51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02019053.7%102 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Over47c1,900$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0078643%37 W · 49 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Over46c1,699$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.161352.5%322 W · 291 L+29.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Under51c1,550$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.527351.3%140 W · 133 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Under51c1,200$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61273748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf009…43d0backed Over66c1,060$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.4511051.8%57 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked Under51c1,016$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.868441.7%35 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Under52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52061947.7%295 W · 324 L-1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dce…c58ebacked Over46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Over51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4904146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed Under49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4908943.8%39 W · 50 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf01a…cc6abacked Under54c997.07$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.421050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e83…b22fbacked Under54c964.6$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.282138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76e4…febcbacked Over47c851.06$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.069045.6%41 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Under53c765.05$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.4859549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Under51c715.21$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.5856851.4%292 W · 276 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over48c607.6$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.632,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Under47c600$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.9410548.6%51 W · 54 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Under51c599$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.491,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over45c591.38$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.041,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…0d22backed Under54c544.17$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over48c501.06$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.381,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Under54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27085952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Under51c493.35$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.031,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under54c462.96$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Under54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,16749%572 W · 595 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4af7…2381backed Under54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Over45c324.5$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.483542.9%15 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x459f…c1f5backed Over47c286$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.587447.3%35 W · 39 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea3d…2e9dbacked Under51c278$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.782969%20 W · 9 L+4.5wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Under51c258$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.581,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under51c252$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.41,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over46c223.97$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.161,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Over47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.771,00052.4%524 W · 476 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae51…0d08backed Over52c212.29$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2936440.1%146 W · 218 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Over48c209.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.349649.8%247 W · 249 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under51c201.88$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9630750.2%154 W · 153 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Over47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10659150.3%297 W · 294 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10048150.7%244 W · 237 L-19.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Under51c197$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4735650.6%180 W · 176 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Under51c188$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8813452.2%70 W · 64 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,00058.8%588 W · 412 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Under50c180.25$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1314340.6%58 W · 85 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Over46c177.46$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.8367444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over59c166.85$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.755,12654.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L+231.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6196…1a64backed Under54c166.67$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9017558.3%102 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Under51c166.67$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8544348.5%215 W · 228 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Under51c165.63$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.516346%29 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under51c163.8$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Under38c147.4$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.435,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Under51c147.18$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0629255.8%163 W · 129 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3565…0b17backed Under51c137.25$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7022450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Over71c124$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2688053.8%473 W · 407 L+41.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Under50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6049158.9%289 W · 202 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6495…6cd7backed Over50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606855.9%38 W · 30 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa21b…9e94backed Over50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6048651%248 W · 238 L-18.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under50c109.78$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.891,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under51c102$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0225648%123 W · 133 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under52c101.27$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.346,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x579a…d402backed Under51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d5…11f0backed Under51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x198c…6a94backed Under51c97.06$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.55541.8%23 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x00ea…4013backed Under51c76.92$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.231747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x961a…e91cbacked Under54c74.07$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406956.5%39 W · 30 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14de…414ebacked Over69c73.52$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5216056.9%91 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7242…ac6fbacked Under54c71.43$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5713152.7%69 W · 62 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed Over48c70.7$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8684140.2%338 W · 503 L-3.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Under53c66.4$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1825249.6%125 W · 127 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Under51c63.55$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4130048%144 W · 156 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ba…0bc3backed Under51c63.15$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.214751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Over47c59.19$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.371,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4cb…a917backed Under51c58.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.720751.2%106 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…d6d8backed Under51c57.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.125250%26 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3597…3e48backed Under54c55.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307250%36 W · 36 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c9…5124backed Over54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5641249.5%204 W · 208 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaf9…3a59backed Under51c53$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0316544.8%74 W · 91 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3534…a1b3backed Under54c50.76$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.417051.4%36 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f5…bb11backed Over51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.555953.1%297 W · 262 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4619…2108backed Under50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7d…64dabacked Under51c48.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.78944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.