Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Shelbourne FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad38106ff67d981be3e67f37d75f751d0fe69d010faead88f8326f59bee770b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shelbourne FCof Shelbourne FC, Nõmme Kalju FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Nõmme Kalju FC | 30c | 656.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Nõmme Kalju FC | 24c | 475.59$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.14 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Shelbourne FC | 69c | 426.46$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.73 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Shelbourne FC | 69c | 359.76$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.68 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Shelbourne FC | 69c | 310.77$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.34 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Nõmme Kalju FC | 46c | 274.15$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.26 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Shelbourne FC | 76c | 217.83$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Nõmme Kalju FC | 49c | 189.22$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.23 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Shelbourne FC | 70c | 106.1$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Shelbourne FC | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Shelbourne FC | 40c | 94.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Shelbourne FC | 48c | 77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 152 | 40.8%62 W · 90 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Nõmme Kalju FC | 29c | 41.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Shelbourne FC | 70c | 36.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Nõmme Kalju FC | 59c | 20.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Nõmme Kalju FC | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Nõmme Kalju FC | 59c | 19.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Shelbourne FC (-1.5)this page
- Shelbourne FC vs. Nõmme Kalju FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shelbourne FC vs. Nõmme Kalju FC: Nõmme Kalju FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Shelbourne FC vs. Nõmme Kalju FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Shelbourne FC vs. Nõmme Kalju FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Shelbourne FC vs. Nõmme Kalju FC: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Nõmme Kalju FC (-2.5)Shelbourne FC won
- Spread: Shelbourne FC (-2.5)Shelbourne FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.