NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad3cc03c679c258572232bc689a564ece2342a55eb94b8c292ca7647221515d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Over | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.97 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…87bdbacked Under | 58c | 2,586$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.21 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Over | 44c | 681.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 56c | 631.82$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Under | 58c | 244.07$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.51 | 211 | 58.8%124 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 57c | 175$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 43c | 116.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce7…81a3backed Under | 58c | 107.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 70c | 90.6$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…a877backed Under | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 42c | 83.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 56c | 83.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Over | 45c | 82.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 200 | 47.5%95 W · 105 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 43c | 58.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Under | 58c | 47.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 27c | 41.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…f7f0backed Under | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…74b3backed Under | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…7f1cbacked Under | 58c | 25.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Golden Knights vs. Capitals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Capitals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Golden Knights won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.