NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x953eb1612e16e56f96328c4e0915c4f79a7a68bfe2188e7e85992f42a01c7d0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ac…5befbacked Over | 54c | 7,600$4,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,104 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a95…000bbacked Under | 46c | 7,600$3,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,104 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 47c | 3,818$1,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,023.54 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 44c | 3,405$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,895.21 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Over | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 56c | 1,457$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.92 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 54c | 1,052$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.81 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Over | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 53c | 984.39$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.73 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 46c | 919.47$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.51 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 56c | 419$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.89 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 44c | 372.32$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.91 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 56c | 289.13$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.36 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Over | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…01cebacked Under | 45c | 149$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.95 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 59cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 261 | 36%94 W · 167 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -13.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 80c | 87.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 57c | 70.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…6192backed Over | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Under | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 46c | 64.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…b778backed Over | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 62c | 50.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 60c | 49.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…2269backed Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78e0…2bb0backed Over | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951b…291abacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…04cbbacked Over | 56c | 21.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Golden Knights vs. Capitals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Capitals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Golden Knights won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.