South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Rosario Central vs. CA Banfield end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad40e26fe81eff32081411e0af91a6286d150884d5aed4764bfc9aae3a6b9a5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,312 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 49c | 5,113$2,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600.95 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 52c | 3,716$1,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,918.54 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 211 | 32.7%69 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 44c | 1,818$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.34 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 60c | 1,172$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.43 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 29c | 1,059$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.98 | 97 | 27.8%27 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…4700backed Yes | 34c | 1,034$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 33c | 593.94$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…b609backed Yes | 34c | 363.74$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.11 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 48c | 348.03$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.75 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 32c | 303.7$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…1759backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed No | 39c | 216.93$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.33 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 147$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd3…5314backed No | 39c | 124.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.65 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 50cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 67c | 103.62$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 90.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 81.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 51c | 81.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 48c | 74.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e7…e57fbacked Yes | 25c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Yes | 61c | 57.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8577…199abacked No | 50c | 51.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 54c | 35.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked No | 34c | 34.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 191 | 44.5%85 W · 106 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…b8d3backed Yes | 50c | 33.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 74c | 29.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e41…9fbebacked Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Rosario Central vs. CA Banfield end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Banfield win on 2026-03-14?No won
- Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-03-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.