Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad500f5cccfce6bcfe4b305cc43a3eea1d5415ae3a3d0867f13e1e3aec64e811
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 70c | 1,417$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.96 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked No | 70c | 807.54$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…eed5backed Yes | 36c | 400$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63fd…ae6ebacked Yes | 35c | 399.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…6804backed Yes | 36c | 399.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf565…cb93backed Yes | 35c | 397.94$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.15 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 70c | 397.7$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.31 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…92b6backed Yes | 35c | 380.25$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.9 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…e9f9backed Yes | 32c | 304.72$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.83 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…36a8backed Yes | 32c | 274.8$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.42 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 259.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c500backed No | 70c | 249.54$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.86 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…603bbacked Yes | 31c | 218.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63f8…750bbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe89f…c2c6backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a9…6747backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf821…f546backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4c…0b31backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42d1…8769backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b7…4834backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf8…e39ebacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c87…d952backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…120ebacked Yes | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc3…b884backed Yes | 30c | 199.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…a1c9backed Yes | 30c | 199.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 191.07$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 36c | 165.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 32c | 162$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 153.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…493cbacked No | 70c | 145.5$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb80…d0e3backed Yes | 28c | 130.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 26c | 126.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 11c | 121.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…da77backed Yes | 33c | 106.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…6969backed Yes | 37c | 70.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 72c | 64.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 60.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 36c | 59.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed No | 70c | 58.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 68c | 56.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 58c | 50.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23e…2623backed Yes | 40c | 47.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 43.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…24d1backed No | 70c | 41.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6054…a179backed Yes | 36c | 38.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 69c | 36.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 78c | 34.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 31c | 34.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 42c | 33.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…a354backed Yes | 32c | 33.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 63c | 21.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 65c | 20.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 70c | 19.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…b989backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 65c | 19.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 74c | 18.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 18.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 17.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 65c | 15.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.