Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad5be7e1dade2bfd28e4ca3eda638368f06b601713bc4ac441932d1f0e9f1525
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 389.5$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.04 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 10c | 247.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 8c | 245.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 186.37$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 40c | 176.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.23 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 23c | 164$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 157.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 141.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 38c | 113.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe713…c9a0backed Yes | 19c | 90.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.95 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 89.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36e…c744backed No | 26c | 83.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 47c | 69.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 19c | 65.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed Yes | 19c | 57.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…76c2backed No | 56c | 43.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 57c | 39.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 28c | 37.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 35c | 35.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 34.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 78c | 28.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 36c | 27.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 46c | 23.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed No | 64c | 16.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C or below on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.