Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9eb2bcdb1bb4e4f09f0a3328d0781b5fc7d1bae5f46237a1169c82e9a6332fcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 226.3$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 49c | 141.86$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.95 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 8c | 140$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 49c | 137.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed Yes | 35c | 116.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 59c | 101.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 56c | 100.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe713…c9a0backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 96.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7254…39c0backed Yes | 67c | 76.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 71c | 76.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 75c | 69.87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…54b3backed Yes | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 61c | 67.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 31c | 64.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 68c | 64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x801a…5a2dbacked Yes | 29c | 63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9701…921abacked Yes | 35c | 52.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 69c | 52.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 41c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 46.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 30c | 46.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e0…efc9backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429d…1bacbacked No | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd0…a3b5backed No | 71c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fce…6732backed No | 30c | 42.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc812…9350backed No | 70c | 37.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 47c | 32.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xe03c…c61bbacked No | 69c | 30.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 68c | 29.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 40c | 28.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 43c | 27.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 27.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 41c | 25.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 54c | 24.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 49c | 23.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 74c | 22.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 61c | 22.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 68c | 22.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc198…1746backed No | 72c | 20.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…5749backed No | 70c | 17.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C or below on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.