MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadac852b30f9ab83bbe2fa522cc2752196b1279e39166442b3a9f1c804daf969
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 4,661$3,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,542.07 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Miami Marlins | 24c | 2,600$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976.29 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Miami Marlins | 24c | 2,075$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.8 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 31c | 1,270$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.65 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 23c | 966.38$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.24 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 910.05$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.59 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 895.12$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.5 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 649.48$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.83 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 117$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Miami Marlins | 28c | 117$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 109.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3216…0cc7backed Miami Marlins | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 80c | 67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Miami Marlins | 20c | 67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Miami Marlins | 33c | 42.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Miami Marlins | 33c | 42.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Miami Marlins | 47c | 36.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay RaysMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 15.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.