MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c4f24f68f5fe8399679c1f0db46631773fa48d0f5168abda1d893634f4ba6f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Tampa Bay Rays, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 38,358$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,000 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 19,210$11,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,477.37 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 3,867$2,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.19 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 3,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 2,195$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.98 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 2,110$1,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.8 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 1,973$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.44 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 1,900$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.27 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 1,761$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 1,752$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 1,672$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.24 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 1,500$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.98 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 1,100$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…42b0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 839.92$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 800$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 740$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 715.31$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.02 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 594.77$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.01 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 591.72$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.85 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 379.02$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.82 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 336.36$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.86 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 324.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 252$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 243.24$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.27 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 234.03$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.83 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 197.99$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfef5…4e98backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 184.66$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 166.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.11 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 150.88$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 129.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 113$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 102.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 60.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…6bc6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 57.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 544 | 55.1%300 W · 244 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 51.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 43.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 40.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…03b0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec7…ed98backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 30.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d7…291dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 23.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 19.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 16.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33fc…dc88backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 16.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay RaysMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 15.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.