MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e85faaab166aea969653102c2aafc1a5fbafff0248edf8fd6d3df623e54e340
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 71c | 4,664$3,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,326.67 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 30c | 3,555$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,488.5 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 1,260$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.71 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 25c | 1,201$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.74 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 18c | 854.98$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.28 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 37c | 819.45$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.11 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9912…a027backed Under | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 79c | 276$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 40c | 236.65$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.29 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 64c | 202.05$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.31 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 33c | 141.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.47 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 18c | 114.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 54c | 112.56$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 57c | 91.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 56c | 63.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf529…755fbacked Under | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 32cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 48c | 56.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 67c | 52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 55c | 49.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…edd3backed Over | 35c | 29.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 65c | 26.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 46c | 22.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay RaysMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 15.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.