MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadf1ced36c46b4e934bffca461853666964bb666bd6948ddc63ad007f26ca1ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 1,577$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 54c | 1,524$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.74 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 50c | 1,209$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.35 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 1,087$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.21 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 64c | 468.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 4c | 409.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 343.36$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.1 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2534…3484backed Under | 42c | 221.61$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.63 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed Under | 9c | 146.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 28c | 144.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 49c | 123.56$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6598…5f36backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 35c | 28.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Under | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.