South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Mazatlán FC vs. FC Juárez end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadfa390a29ea3496afc19cf9c858b1ac8ded7c6db901d4f0d27a159b24e9d284
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 67c | 1,342$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.3 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 33c | 962.49$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.28 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 66c | 369$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.03 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +7.8wins | +0.27per pick | 52cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 78c | 278.13$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 30c | 193.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…6a7fbacked No | 70c | 165.13$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 58cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Yes | 34c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed No | 80c | 147$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked No | 70c | 135$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…f1c5backed Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 22c | 120.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 78c | 105$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked No | 70c | 99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 32c | 96.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f50…d342backed Yes | 30c | 95.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…1e4bbacked Yes | 22c | 93.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed No | 71c | 82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 15c | 73.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…e5bfbacked Yes | 27c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 75c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 79c | 37.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344c…4eb5backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mazatlán FC vs. FC Juárez end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Juárez win on 2026-01-09?Yes won
- Will Mazatlán FC win on 2026-01-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.