Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadfbf1e663c44a4e10420d3227d6c021c412383344cfb840e1824840541910fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 207.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 146.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 45c | 130.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 122.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 120.52$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 116.08$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 67c | 80.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…9d77backed No | 65c | 79.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 38c | 78.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…27d9backed Yes | 45c | 77.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 65c | 71.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked No | 65c | 61.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 30c | 49.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 35c | 49.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 41c | 46.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 37c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked Yes | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 35.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 67c | 30.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…a384backed No | 62c | 28.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked No | 65c | 27.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 63c | 26.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…4e79backed Yes | 39c | 25.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 66c | 20.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 17.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 79c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…e5c6backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.