Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae0ebbb8b0c2c30c1cc8dee0dba0ac0bbf1566d37e390cf00b62bb5672550ebc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 857.21$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.24 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 653.83$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 8c | 453.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 9c | 369.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Yes | 9c | 273.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 146.03$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 13c | 97.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 71c | 83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 63.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 45.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 65c | 33.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 73c | 28.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 65c | 25.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 17.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 66c | 15.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 72c | 14.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 102-103°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 104-105°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.