Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf3734471eb2a89e15fc25c6d6bee3f5e7b577dfc02fcadb8d9c2d18a35afc42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 56c | 1,918$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.03 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 1,186$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 815.22$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 49c | 628$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.12 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 10c | 377.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 44c | 350.56$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.76 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 48c | 329.26$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 44c | 285$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 55c | 271.18$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.98 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 53c | 235.72$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.34 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 45c | 211.79$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.05 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 47c | 211.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.29 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 35c | 188.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 13c | 186.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 45c | 180.44$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 170$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 48c | 130$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 128.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 79c | 126.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 56c | 118.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 50c | 107.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 46c | 103.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 78c | 100.24$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 46c | 96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 56c | 83.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 47c | 79.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 79.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 69c | 76.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 52c | 73.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 53c | 66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 78c | 64.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 63.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 54c | 63.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked No | 44c | 53.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…ceecbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 46c | 49.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 57c | 48.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 45.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…f3cebacked No | 42c | 45.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 54c | 39.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 39.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked Yes | 49c | 38.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 45c | 33.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes | 47c | 31.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 58c | 30.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 79c | 26.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed Yes | 46c | 22.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 66c | 22.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 47c | 22.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 56c | 20.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 75c | 20.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 57c | 19.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 75c | 19.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 102-103°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 104-105°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.