Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 102-103°F on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ea924229adc54d7a8a92abbabc7852a59b7ae57cc4b9384a9740436aa7cf6d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 27c | 726.65$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.77 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 570.54$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 46c | 344.61$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 340$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.69 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 249.3$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.48 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 243$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 55c | 208.39$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 203.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 49c | 199.94$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.07 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 197.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 175.39$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 37c | 157.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 152.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 16c | 110.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 106.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 105$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 99.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 88.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 83.92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 61c | 83.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked Yes | 46c | 76.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 18c | 74.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 62c | 71.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 52.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 32c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 75c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 59c | 41.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 55c | 37.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 32.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 30.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 67c | 28.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 25.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…ce1dbacked No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 71c | 22.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 77c | 19.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 102-103°F on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 104-105°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.