CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: AaB esport vs Fortress (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae1655dbe89e9256ac790d12cdef34bebbe1bca5b0c57d4c6c30f34de36d0736
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AaB esportof AaB esport, Fortress
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,993 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Fortress | 13c | 869.39$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.31 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…3206backed Fortress | 11c | 757.38$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.27 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Fortress | 12c | 699.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 316 | 42.1%133 W · 183 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf6…b779backed Fortress | 14c | 592.66$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.78 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…6fe0backed Fortress | 12c | 346.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Fortress | 11c | 328.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Fortress | 14c | 218.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Fortress | 13c | 206.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Fortress | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked Fortress | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Fortress | 11c | 189.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 1,038 | 39.9%414 W · 624 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5f…d393backed Fortress | 11c | 167.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Fortress | 11c | 136.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 540 | 32.4%175 W · 365 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc474…d697backed Fortress | 12c | 127.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Fortress | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 335 | 39.4%132 W · 203 L | -19.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…7b51backed Fortress | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…b346backed Fortress | 15c | 97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fd…b4d3backed AaB esport | 76c | 15.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 298 | 40.3%120 W · 178 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.