TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Seattle Mariners
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,158
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,634

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,158 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7634…600dbacked Kansas City Royals58c4,000$2,320 inWon+$1,68060350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Mariners42c3,998$1,674 inLost-$1,674.458,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Kansas City Royals59c1,320$779 inWon+$541.055,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Seattle Mariners41c1,196$490 inLost-$490.473,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners25c370.86$93 inLost-$93.1610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Kansas City Royals61c257.81$157 inWon+$101.186,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec45…6c6dbacked Kansas City Royals60c254$152 inWon+$101.617058.2%99 W · 71 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Seattle Mariners39c248.71$97 inLost-$9759549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb376…f6a0backed Kansas City Royals80c234.3$187 inWon+$46.861050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Seattle Mariners30c212.09$64 inLost-$63.6599624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f2c…d911backed Seattle Mariners41c119.64$49 inLost-$49.052138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf5e…95e3backed Kansas City Royals42c113.62$48 inWon+$65.926752.8%141 W · 126 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners58c66.27$38 inLost-$38.4311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Kansas City Royals65c46.07$30 inWon+$16.121,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3894…decfbacked Seattle Mariners47c42.05$20 inLost-$19.7637551.2%192 W · 183 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Kansas City Royals65c32$21 inWon+$11.21,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Seattle Mariners51c21.81$11 inLost-$11.22,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Kansas City Royals65c16.34$11 inWon+$5.7266056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.