MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fd56469644c663656fcd03442d1e6be6c56051cd2b0e90fd23023fea8de7c9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 49c | 2,772$1,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370.84 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 50c | 2,772$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,391.36 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 54c | 1,983$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.19 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 46c | 1,423$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.36 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Under | 50c | 1,256$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.09 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 51c | 1,191$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.34 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 49c | 1,021$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.71 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 51c | 934.48$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.58 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 47c | 635.79$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.82 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Under | 51c | 590$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.1 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…437cbacked Under | 54c | 568.56$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.54 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 560.65$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.13 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 52c | 458.25$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.96 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 46c | 399$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.54 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf50f…0586backed Under | 52c | 391$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.68 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +5.7wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 356.21$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.44 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 51c | 284.65$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.49 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 46c | 268.47$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 231.17$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.98 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec43…a48abacked Over | 52c | 211.77$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04f…55f6backed Under | 49c | 209.59$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.89 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 69c | 192.52$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.84 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 49c | 136.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 52c | 119.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Over | 46c | 108.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 49c | 99.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 51c | 83.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 51c | 83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 48c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74a…f1bfbacked Over | 51c | 49.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Over | 49c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 38c | 26.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 49c | 25.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe46d…8b87backed Under | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc185…7020backed Over | 74c | 22.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 51c | 22.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c42…93bfbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 62c | 19.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.