Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae2b454aae1067bf1604d92589fee0341c93f8d27679ce7189789008cdf6b0d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 4,277$2,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,666.72 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…ee57backed Pipsqueak+4 | 39c | 4,052$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580.17 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Pipsqueak+4 | 2c | 934$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 37c | 485.93$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.31 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Nigma Galaxy | 64c | 389$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.59 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pipsqueak+4 | 24c | 188.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 42c | 178.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 159.95$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.18 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453e…eabcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 69c | 157.3$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda12…38d6backed Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa420…35bbbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 48c | 135$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.05 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Pipsqueak+4 | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…6832backed Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 73.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7e1fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 52.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…e51dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 43.3%84 W · 110 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Pipsqueak+4 | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 41.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Pipsqueak+4 | 38c | 38.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 29.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 28.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa08a…ad51backed Nigma Galaxy | 63c | 21.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group BNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.