Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e467b4f4c2a7805c8a5147766b3293beb0d7f1a6cd2efed841058e6e8c33e4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 39c | 2,323$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.64 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 705.29$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.69 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 630$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.9 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pipsqueak+4 | 25c | 450.92$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.37 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…96f4backed Pipsqueak+4 | 13c | 327.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 325.46$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.27 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 270.77$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.77 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…63bebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 50c | 199.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 124 | 55.6%69 W · 55 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd15e…db59backed Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Pipsqueak+4 | 33c | 149.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…39a0backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 145.63$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 40c | 113.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 100.11$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 100.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Nigma Galaxy | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 28c | 88.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 86.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Pipsqueak+4 | 45c | 79.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…6832backed Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 58.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 52.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 50.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Pipsqueak+4 | 28c | 41.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bd…4dacbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453e…eabcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Nigma Galaxy | 52c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa08a…ad51backed Nigma Galaxy | 63c | 26.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…e51dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 46c | 22.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 194 | 43.3%84 W · 110 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 19.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa765…603abacked Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 16.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group BNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.