Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x022bfe389f166feec6ec9ce3976e63eb104ce0ddd1a15e0bec7c8d07801b650b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Pipsqueak+4 | 0c | 3,716$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pipsqueak+4 | 24c | 790.58$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.67 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed Nigma Galaxy | 69c | 727.82$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.82 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 39c | 618.25$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.62 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed Pipsqueak+4 | 37c | 532.98$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.58 | 254 | 44.5%113 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Pipsqueak+4 | 10c | 472.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 168 | 35.7%60 W · 108 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 20c | 387.06$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 351.61$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.01 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 31c | 336.05$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.29 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 63c | 334$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.94 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 13c | 196.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 164.25$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 147$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2489…60f1backed Pipsqueak+4 | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 99.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…e0cebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 12c | 94.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 30c | 93.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 77.57$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Pipsqueak+4 | 32c | 74.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Nigma Galaxy | 63c | 74.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 31c | 74.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Nigma Galaxy | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed Nigma Galaxy | 69c | 50.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 40c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Nigma Galaxy | 64c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac2…b76ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Nigma Galaxy | 72c | 44.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf60c…f540backed Nigma Galaxy | 71c | 41.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e1…850bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Nigma Galaxy | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8432…d2c4backed Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 37.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…3469backed Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 215 | 51.6%111 W · 104 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 33.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…a70dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…f260backed Pipsqueak+4 | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeac1…deafbacked Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…561cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 64c | 29.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…5d12backed Pipsqueak+4 | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Pipsqueak+4 | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Nigma Galaxy | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…5052backed Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.