TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group B

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, Pipsqueak+4
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,337
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,830

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,337 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Pipsqueak+40c3,716$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.626169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Pipsqueak+424c790.58$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.6773841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67c3…0e36backed Nigma Galaxy69c727.82$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.8212965.1%84 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Pipsqueak+439c618.25$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.6255157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed Pipsqueak+437c532.98$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.5825444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Pipsqueak+410c472.16$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.716835.7%60 W · 108 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Pipsqueak+420c387.06$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.6779341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed Nigma Galaxy68c351.61$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.0129245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Pipsqueak+431c336.05$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2912843.8%56 W · 72 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc954…642fbacked Nigma Galaxy63c334$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.9416155.3%89 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Nigma Galaxy57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869756.7%55 W · 42 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Pipsqueak+435c199.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7080544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97f2…d84fbacked Pipsqueak+413c196.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.647746.8%36 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb79…6274backed Nigma Galaxy68c164.25$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.317152%89 W · 82 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed3f…0ab8backed Nigma Galaxy60c147$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.81560%9 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+67.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2489…60f1backed Pipsqueak+419c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed Nigma Galaxy65c99.26$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7467853.5%363 W · 315 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61d9…e0cebacked Pipsqueak+412c94.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.156150.8%31 W · 30 L+7.2wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+9.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Pipsqueak+430c93.02$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0730138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Nigma Galaxy67c77.57$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5836851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed Nigma Galaxy65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.929045.6%41 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8046…a845backed Pipsqueak+432c74.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.335950.8%30 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Nigma Galaxy63c74.79$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.671,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Pipsqueak+431c74.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1449133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x850a…e5dbbacked Nigma Galaxy70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.438061.3%49 W · 31 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb27…8be8backed Nigma Galaxy69c50.3$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6318248.4%88 W · 94 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked Nigma Galaxy62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1922845.6%104 W · 124 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Nigma Galaxy67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3153757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Pipsqueak+434c49.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1717638.6%68 W · 108 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa554…e53dbacked Pipsqueak+440c48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf572…065abacked Nigma Galaxy64c47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.92450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb990…3d1cbacked Pipsqueak+440c45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac2…b76ebacked Nigma Galaxy68c44.12$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.121758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Nigma Galaxy72c44.11$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3566662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf60c…f540backed Nigma Galaxy71c41.26$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.045362.3%33 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61e1…850bbacked Nigma Galaxy68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xace6…5556backed Nigma Galaxy62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.223347.2%110 W · 123 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Nigma Galaxy76c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.811145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8432…d2c4backed Nigma Galaxy67c37.12$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nigma Galaxy68c36.76$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.762,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95c8…3469backed Nigma Galaxy68c36.76$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7621551.6%111 W · 104 L+10.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc393…590abacked Nigma Galaxy67c33.01$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0123849.6%118 W · 120 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6098…a70dbacked Nigma Galaxy65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.77425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-61.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x62b7…f260backed Pipsqueak+434c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.220735.3%73 W · 134 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeac1…deafbacked Nigma Galaxy67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76ef…561cbacked Nigma Galaxy64c29.64$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.676460.9%39 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30ee…5d12backed Pipsqueak+440c29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4d0…9b74backed Pipsqueak+440c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+33%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Nigma Galaxy69c20.29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2912061.7%74 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9620…5052backed Nigma Galaxy55c18.2$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.191637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-31.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.