Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Baylor Bears vs. San Diego State Aztecs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae2c15f722be37b8917770e6d2e03d13baa43ff9cce1d9d64bae2be6887a4e93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baylor Bearsof Baylor Bears, San Diego State Aztecs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baylor Bears | 55c | 1,357$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.62 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed San Diego State Aztecs | 46c | 692.58$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.32 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…1332backed San Diego State Aztecs | 35c | 622.31$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.81 | 132 | 19.7%26 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Baylor Bears | 74c | 590$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.2 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked San Diego State Aztecs | 25c | 374.93$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed San Diego State Aztecs | 30c | 349.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 429 | 34.3%147 W · 282 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…f4f4backed Baylor Bears | 75c | 304$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…a30cbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 25c | 232.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Baylor Bears | 71c | 128.52$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked San Diego State Aztecs | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 226 | 40.7%92 W · 134 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf6…7e3ebacked Baylor Bears | 76c | 103.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3406…3233backed San Diego State Aztecs | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Baylor Bears | 54c | 84.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Baylor Bears | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed San Diego State Aztecs | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9452…b685backed San Diego State Aztecs | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.