MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaeae7e0ebbde78aa5a29982372ae3c96c3aa21359f11d92b066832e3dea0b513
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof St. Louis Cardinals, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 12,359$8,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,040.66 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 6,847$2,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 25c | 4,938$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.17 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed St. Louis Cardinals | 28c | 3,624$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.91 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 70c | 3,437$2,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.62 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 231.97$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.51 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 26c | 216.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 160.07$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Miami Marlins | 71c | 141.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Miami Marlins | 72c | 96.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 28c | 64.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Miami Marlins | 76c | 40.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 38.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Miami Marlins | 67c | 38.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 36.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 36.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 30.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 27.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 21.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8255…cba9backed Miami Marlins | 79c | 16.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 15.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis CardinalsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 2.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 3.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.