MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4632304ec5698091b9adbba7e2eae86be3988774ed488ed416765edf53e2d405
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 42c | 10,000$4,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,239.95 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 7,129$3,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,347.15 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 47c | 5,555$2,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,610.85 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 4,979$2,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,231.67 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 48c | 3,587$1,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,721.61 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 53c | 3,585$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,684.91 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Under | 54c | 3,132$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,454.98 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 53c | 2,871$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.27 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x595d…9ad0backed Under | 53c | 2,830$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.19 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 60c | 2,582$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.34 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 55c | 1,665$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.25 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 53c | 1,061$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.82 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 48c | 728.52$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.62 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 550.08$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.54 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 52c | 425.99$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.48 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 346.9$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.66 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 46c | 341.19$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.56 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 52c | 302.39$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.18 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 49c | 123$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 62c | 80.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 158 | 62.7%99 W · 59 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…5019backed Over | 17c | 69.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Under | 52c | 48.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 47.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…28ffbacked Under | 54c | 39.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 52c | 39.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…8beebacked Under | 63c | 27.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 132 | 63.6%84 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis CardinalsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 2.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 3.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.