NFL · resolved market
LAR vs. Panthers: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaebf03d76e8bb464771a68f7c11eba2a839c45ca1b2b3a339a7a309f8281d525
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 49c | 5,125$2,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,490 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Over | 52c | 3,395$1,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615.65 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Under | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Over | 52c | 1,250$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Over | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 117 | 40.2%47 W · 70 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 501.25$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.66 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…e4d2backed Over | 52c | 282.69$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.69 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 48c | 101.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fadabacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…f955backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…b91ebacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…429fbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LAR vs. Panthers: O/U 44.5this page
- LAR vs. PanthersPanthers won
- LAR vs. Panthers: 1H MoneylineLAR won
- LAR vs. Panthers: O/U 45.5Over won
- Spread: LAR (-10.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.