Premier League · resolved market
Swansea City AFC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaec9ec503fa2870df9b4adbfa76fa8f519dbb2c5958742d431b50680a898071d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 36c | 505.22$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.91 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 61c | 324.95$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.29 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 73c | 214.5$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.11 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 55c | 182$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.27 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 76c | 101.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 4,696 | 41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 114 | 20.2%23 W · 91 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 47c | 92.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 54c | 82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 54c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked Under | 15c | 68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 54 | 3.7%2 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Under | 54c | 64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 64c | 59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Under | 55c | 52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 42.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Over | 46c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…47f8backed Over | 46c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 62c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…47edbacked Over | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked Over | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed Over | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Swansea City AFC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Swansea City AFC (-1.5)Wrexham AFC won
- Swansea City AFC vs. Wrexham AFC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Swansea City AFC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Swansea City AFC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.