Fifa International · resolved market
Will Bahrain win on 2025-11-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaecea1d6995f18fe252614fe1c02e401ea0199286e57a0b83d4e0cbec9ad2a0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa982…ceffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +350.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 20c | 999.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.99 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 53c | 989.59$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.63 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed Yes | 40c | 600$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.03 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Yes | 77c | 300$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f6…f337backed No | 23c | 300$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Yes | 77c | 205$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 27c | 185$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.85 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 27c | 180.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.96 | 287 | 54.7%157 W · 130 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Yes | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 76c | 130$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…45a0backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Yes | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 96 | 67.7%65 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Yes | 77c | 71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 21c | 70.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 23c | 65.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked No | 23c | 58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 23c | 56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…ca38backed No | 23c | 52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +149.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed No | 23c | 52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked No | 23c | 51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +140%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e19…7100backed Yes | 79c | 46.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…1dc7backed Yes | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e3…1803backed Yes | 79c | 41.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc425…6268backed Yes | 79c | 41.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fd…b1e4backed Yes | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x834d…fc02backed Yes | 78c | 30.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06a…5ae7backed Yes | 79c | 30.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…ead5backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…f2fabacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 80c | 25.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 363 | 49.3%179 W · 184 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 226 | 50.9%115 W · 111 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54b…ac63backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bahrain win on 2025-11-17?this page
- Will Bahrain vs. Somalia end in a draw?No won
- Will Somalia win on 2025-11-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.