Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team NS vs Stray Team - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaecef1fb81eca9fc33a8f3ea3d8f6b55632f286f2619b94719075f73bab6631b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stray Teamof Team NS, Stray Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c75…de96backed Stray Team | 78c | 1,825$1,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.43 | 224 | 61.2%137 W · 87 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team NS | 21c | 980.82$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.94 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Team NS | 14c | 840.91$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.3 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Team NS | 35c | 578.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Stray Team | 60c | 499.7$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.23 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team NS | 27c | 426.22$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.19 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…4a19backed Team NS | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…9091backed Stray Team | 71c | 223.47$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aba…1d0fbacked Team NS | 45c | 222.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Stray Team | 75c | 199.98$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Stray Team | 68c | 161.29$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Team NS | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…9ed0backed Stray Team | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Team NS | 29c | 145.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Team NS | 16c | 143.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Team NS | 48c | 139.75$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…d8c0backed Team NS | 40c | 105.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Team NS | 27c | 104.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Team NS | 35c | 100.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Team NS | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 504 | 44%222 W · 282 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb71…d7c1backed Team NS | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3724…c59abacked Team NS | 20c | 84.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Stray Team | 61c | 82.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4994…3e36backed Team NS | 25c | 78.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +19.9wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4f57…27e4backed Team NS | 27c | 76.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…a1aabacked Stray Team | 73c | 72.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Team NS | 29c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Stray Team | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 213 | 33.3%71 W · 142 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f79…434abacked Team NS | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 496 | 44.6%221 W · 275 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Team NS | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…663bbacked Stray Team | 58c | 38.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Stray Team | 73c | 34.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ac…fd38backed Team NS | 39c | 31.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Stray Team | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Stray Team | 77c | 20.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18d…9c5bbacked Stray Team | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…bdaabacked Stray Team | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team NS vs Stray Team - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team NS vs Stray Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group AStray Team won
- Dota 2: Team NS vs Stray Team - Game 2 WinnerTeam NS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.