TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team NS vs Stray Team - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team NSof Team NS, Stray Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,570
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,917

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,570 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2f39…de4abacked Stray Team47c1,865$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.4520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Stray Team53c1,034$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.8854058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked Team NS53c1,027$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.127143.5%118 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Stray Team60c783.04$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.5599844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Stray Team73c645.47$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.2686659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c75…de96backed Stray Team58c513.11$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.9922461.2%137 W · 87 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Team NS63c499.99$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18550769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Team NS40c496.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.5157449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Stray Team77c489$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.5321650.9%110 W · 106 L-25.3wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-21.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team NS36c471.78$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.731,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Stray Team20c342.7$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1491356.1%512 W · 401 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9d8…89f5backed Team NS43c323.59$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.597157.7%41 W · 30 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Team NS37c270.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.2748054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Team NS30c250$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17527737.2%103 W · 174 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Stray Team54c199$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.946049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3e2d…fb60backed Team NS25c168$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12650444%222 W · 282 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e7…04a6backed Stray Team15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233525.7%9 W · 26 L-6.6wins-0.19per pick45cpaid-56.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0c99…8e7ebacked Team NS29c146.06$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.733854.1%183 W · 155 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc651…15d3backed Team NS40c146.05$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.057147.9%34 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team NS55c121.16$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.532,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Team NS38c120.32$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.0669033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee59…e42abacked Team NS24c118.15$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.828846.9%135 W · 153 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Team NS61c113.88$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8745061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Team NS62c111.94$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9473554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Team NS40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6060251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Stray Team55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5564149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e63…9e38backed Stray Team65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6534561.2%211 W · 134 L+17.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b9c…3c44backed Team NS19c99.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813066.7%20 W · 10 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+30.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3aba…1d0fbacked Stray Team69c98$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.421266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4ec…1cc8backed Team NS35c94.29$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.294332.6%14 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b9…0a9bbacked Team NS43c75.27$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5510156.4%57 W · 44 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Team NS49c71.09$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.511,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x315f…85c6backed Team NS59c67.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.829347.4%139 W · 154 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca97…f3cebacked Team NS31c63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.473754.1%20 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Team NS32c62.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.540442.3%171 W · 233 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Team NS28c54.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0519449%95 W · 99 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a61…02d2backed Team NS62c52.84$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.086956.5%39 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3724…c59abacked Team NS34c51.29$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.773928.2%11 W · 28 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-36.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Team NS40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3059556.6%337 W · 258 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26c2…0cdfbacked Team NS32c45.05$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5118652.2%97 W · 89 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked Stray Team61c45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.312263.9%78 W · 44 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team NS34c43.35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.51,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28dd…f376backed Stray Team60c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2413653.7%73 W · 63 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6795…4a4cbacked Team NS39c35.55$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5513246.2%61 W · 71 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Team NS40c35.38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3845046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f57…27e4backed Team NS47c32.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.042147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcc9…e4afbacked Team NS41c32.07$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.075738.6%22 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-21.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e83…ecabbacked Stray Team66c22.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.024156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81ef…8ea1backed Stray Team70c17.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.