Tennis · resolved market
Metepec: Stefan Kozlov vs Karl Poling
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaeeb28e111eb6b8a565433a07493acb471fa44dfdd149f560421a50c141b3401
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kozlovof Kozlov, Poling
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x972b…78babacked Poling | 19c | 1,608$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.31 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Poling | 20c | 892.84$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.38 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Poling | 18c | 599.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Poling | 7c | 571.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 151 | 17.9%27 W · 124 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Poling | 26c | 463.44$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.26 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kozlov | 72c | 433.14$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.95 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Poling | 13c | 377.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Poling | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…9e06backed Kozlov | 72c | 208.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Poling | 16c | 166.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…3984backed Kozlov | 73c | 165.72$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 182 | 58.8%107 W · 75 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2cc…5a59backed Kozlov | 69c | 163.92$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Poling | 15c | 147$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kozlov | 80c | 146.01$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Poling | 17c | 118.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Poling | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Poling | 14c | 71.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Kozlov | 75c | 65.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…af4abacked Poling | 16c | 62.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Kozlov | 74c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Kozlov | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3849…00d8backed Kozlov | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Kozlov | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 263 | 49%129 W · 134 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Kozlov | 72c | 37.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 341 | 59.5%203 W · 138 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…54f0backed Kozlov | 73c | 20.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Metepec: Stefan Kozlov vs Karl Polingthis page
- Kozlov vs. Poling: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.