Tennis · resolved market
Lugano: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Henry Bernet
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf0f73e2fdaaa2809f56a42c496246b8ce4a1c2b6a724528e5e9c2fff9860609
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kjaerof Kjaer, Bernet
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bernet | 8c | 13,671$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.48 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bernet | 8c | 5,828$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.2 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…a127backed Kjaer | 66c | 726.06$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.9 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Bernet | 33c | 390.19$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.84 | 265 | 35.5%94 W · 171 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Kjaer | 69c | 373$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.61 | 737 | 45.2%333 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Bernet | 34c | 339.02$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.27 | 328 | 42.7%140 W · 188 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…fb66backed Kjaer | 70c | 328$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.61 | 536 | 44.8%240 W · 296 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed Kjaer | 66c | 305.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.32 | 245 | 60%147 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8f…d351backed Kjaer | 67c | 260.64$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.59 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Bernet | 14c | 254.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Bernet | 19c | 249.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 250 | 51.2%128 W · 122 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Bernet | 11c | 243.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Bernet | 28c | 234.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…d57bbacked Bernet | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Kjaer | 65c | 192.16$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.12 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kjaer | 69c | 178$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Bernet | 35c | 171.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Bernet | 6c | 171.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Bernet | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | +12.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Bernet | 35c | 141.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | +18.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Bernet | 35c | 137.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 350 | 40.9%143 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Bernet | 43c | 116.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Kjaer | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bernet | 34c | 86.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Kjaer | 67c | 74.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Bernet | 32c | 69.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Bernet | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Bernet | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 138 | 47.8%66 W · 72 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Bernet | 30c | 52.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Kjaer | 58c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Bernet | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 231 | 26%60 W · 171 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f6…a5eebacked Kjaer | 65c | 45.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 599 | 54.9%329 W · 270 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Kjaer | 66c | 45.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…0f95backed Bernet | 35c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 108 | 35.2%38 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…e115backed Bernet | 40c | 37.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 146 | 39%57 W · 89 L | -14.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Kjaer | 66c | 25.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Kjaer | 76c | 21.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 290 | 63.8%185 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b61…ea3fbacked Kjaer | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Kjaer | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 770 | 47.9%369 W · 401 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.