Tennis · resolved market
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Hanyi Liu
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf0fd99cdde56f3a31fea9e402bfd7c51178a04049f1d243c4f8697b40d482f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hanyi Liuof Chase Ferguson, Hanyi Liu
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Hanyi Liu | 59c | 5,546$3,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,274.44 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Chase Ferguson | 32c | 1,297$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.7 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chase Ferguson | 56c | 1,136$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.34 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chase Ferguson | 30c | 1,004$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.13 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hanyi Liu | 76c | 679.98$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.56 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Chase Ferguson | 30c | 580.63$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.13 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hanyi Liu | 67c | 403.93$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Chase Ferguson | 32c | 345$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.37 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chase Ferguson | 32c | 313.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Chase Ferguson | 37c | 299.39$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.86 | 372 | 30.4%113 W · 259 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Chase Ferguson | 24c | 266$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Chase Ferguson | 14c | 246.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Chase Ferguson | 33c | 229.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Chase Ferguson | 33c | 159.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 150 | 53.3%80 W · 70 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Chase Ferguson | 69c | 146.35$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Chase Ferguson | 55c | 116.11$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Chase Ferguson | 38c | 103.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 152 | 61.8%94 W · 58 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Chase Ferguson | 55c | 100.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Chase Ferguson | 58c | 89.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Chase Ferguson | 29c | 78.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 896 | 63.7%571 W · 325 L | +63.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Hanyi Liu | 70c | 60.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Chase Ferguson | 56c | 53.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 252 | 57.9%146 W · 106 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…6e9bbacked Hanyi Liu | 67c | 49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 282 | 49.3%139 W · 143 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Chase Ferguson | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Hanyi Liu | 47c | 47.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b9…7e45backed Chase Ferguson | 68c | 29.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 68cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Hanyi Liu | 69c | 27.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 499 | 43.5%217 W · 282 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e58…6c17backed Hanyi Liu | 70c | 21.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Hanyi Liu | 63c | 19.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…b4cbbacked Chase Ferguson | 62c | 19.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.