Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Manhattan vs. Incarnate Word
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf3d8aa756c4874819532dff67695bf7ba9191fd0c36988f281c12c846a18204
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Incarnate Wordof Manhattan, Incarnate Word
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Incarnate Word | 59c | 9,939$5,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,094.98 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Manhattan | 41c | 6,300$2,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,583 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x519f…2af7backed Manhattan | 48c | 4,142$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Manhattan | 45c | 3,545$1,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,588.5 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Incarnate Word | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,559.99 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac90…1882backed Incarnate Word | 58c | 2,002$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfc…b032backed Manhattan | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Manhattan | 52c | 2,000$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.42 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Incarnate Word | 51c | 1,988$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.6 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Manhattan | 20c | 1,578$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.35 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked Incarnate Word | 57c | 1,500$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…b0ffbacked Manhattan | 52c | 1,019$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.05 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Incarnate Word | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…780dbacked Manhattan | 52c | 893.06$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.16 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3f…3aa3backed Manhattan | 52c | 776.6$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.83 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked Manhattan | 49c | 771.07$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x330a…438cbacked Incarnate Word | 50c | 719.92$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cc…a553backed Manhattan | 52c | 710.22$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x020f…8357backed Incarnate Word | 54c | 691.39$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86d…ac82backed Manhattan | 30c | 677.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Incarnate Word | 68c | 641.72$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.95 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Incarnate Word | 52c | 620.51$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.62 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Incarnate Word | 52c | 481.37$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcc…2d54backed Incarnate Word | 51c | 389.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca6…b719backed Manhattan | 50c | 318.61$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Manhattan | 44c | 297.3$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.78 | 168 | 42.3%71 W · 97 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Manhattan | 41c | 216.56$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.76 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked Manhattan | 19c | 213$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 140 | 21.4%30 W · 110 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…fa23backed Manhattan | 45c | 199.87$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…3e11backed Manhattan | 45c | 173.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Incarnate Word | 65c | 154.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Incarnate Word | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…8277backed Manhattan | 31c | 145.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Manhattan | 42c | 136.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb956…c475backed Manhattan | 16c | 122.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Manhattan | 42c | 102.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Manhattan | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ff…b701backed Manhattan | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…e6cdbacked Manhattan | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Incarnate Word | 50c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5de…8ed4backed Incarnate Word | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…678cbacked Manhattan | 51c | 70.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Manhattan | 35c | 66.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…6b3ebacked Incarnate Word | 51c | 60.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Manhattan | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -8.7wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x311d…447dbacked Manhattan | 60c | 46.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Incarnate Word | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…7ca7backed Manhattan | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b7…958dbacked Manhattan | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…a491backed Manhattan | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…3714backed Incarnate Word | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda9f…00bebacked Manhattan | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…7214backed Manhattan | 36c | 29.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Manhattan | 50c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb8…be62backed Manhattan | 50c | 20.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd03d…cda9backed Incarnate Word | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.