Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-02-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf5a3464e101d7b611e5c4061334c7d821dd9803a07479f4f1aac9cf69f37877
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 4,276$3,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.72 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 38c | 3,065$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.66 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1e…238cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Yes | 19c | 1,135$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.12 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 62c | 921.97$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.6 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 62c | 800$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 18c | 783.33$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 39c | 746.15$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Yes | 36c | 400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 22c | 363.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 31c | 266.86$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 62c | 229$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.02 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked Yes | 26c | 217.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 26c | 192$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 63c | 56.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 29c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked No | 72c | 21.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed No | 77c | 19.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-02-21?this page
- Will Karlsruher SC vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw?No won
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-02-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.