Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-02-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb90dd08c173fe6e02e85abdd8bf977272954f3ccd3a19857ada23aca0c64e5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed No | 15c | 18,094$2,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,726.68 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 76c | 17,475$13,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,135.11 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed No | 11c | 10,034$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.1 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked No | 45c | 9,983$4,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,483.98 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed No | 13c | 4,440$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.25 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 8c | 4,079$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.65 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 14c | 3,450$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.35 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9b…b2a9backed No | 18c | 2,473$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed No | 19c | 2,344$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.92 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 76c | 2,343$1,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.11 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa569…08dfbacked Yes | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed No | 4c | 1,075$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked No | 15c | 906.62$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.17 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 12c | 871.77$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.08 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked No | 10c | 865.65$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.32 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 19c | 599.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed Yes | 70c | 502.83$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.96 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked No | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 6c | 479.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked No | 18c | 440.2$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 48c | 412.03$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.68 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 74c | 297.86$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 64c | 287.74$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.68 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbb…0c8cbacked No | 10c | 257.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7d55backed No | 10c | 222.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 62c | 205$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 26c | 130.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed No | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Yes | 52c | 116.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +9.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked No | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a2…dc15backed No | 41c | 103.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa43…22f3backed Yes | 63c | 87.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 39c | 77.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Yes | 70c | 77.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x388b…25ddbacked Yes | 60c | 75.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 67c | 74.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 51c | 60.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed No | 65c | 60.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 47c | 54.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 56c | 36.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 35c | 35.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…fe55backed No | 47c | 33.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed No | 40c | 25.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 55c | 24.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-02-21?this page
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-02-21?No won
- Will Karlsruher SC vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.