MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf6ae4d1850818320aa50079582e0ab9063eace18fabc637a9aee9ebc5717c72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 973.31$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.32 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 47c | 832.38$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.63 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 688.68$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.88 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 683.26$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.87 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 55c | 606.76$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.99 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 32c | 558.99$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.64 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 557.02$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.22 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 43c | 455.62$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.82 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 38c | 377.24$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.58 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 25c | 335.21$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 56c | 214.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 53c | 185$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 47c | 168.34$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.03 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 47c | 157$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.77 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 50c | 155.95$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 54c | 122.58$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Over | 49c | 102.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 65c | 80.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Under | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 43c | 78.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Over | 71c | 70.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 46c | 65.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Under | 54c | 62.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 47c | 51.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 52c | 48.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 54c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14de…414ebacked Under | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 41c | 41.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 55c | 36.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…5200backed Over | 57c | 25.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Under | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 53c | 19.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 74c | 16.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.