Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-01-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf8392adb9c2b0e6dd528f32f40a5199b25906eb8900552d6c972adf5034ee63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked No | 76c | 3,390$2,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.65 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 2,184$1,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.85 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 24c | 2,050$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Yes | 25c | 1,773$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.25 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 1,719$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.21 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…85d0backed Yes | 24c | 1,177$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed No | 75c | 1,173$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.1 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 24c | 1,141$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.32 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 76c | 1,039$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.48 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x291b…2667backed No | 76c | 999.99$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 23c | 973.73$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.73 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 1c | 961.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 25c | 584$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -52%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f9…cd95backed No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 463.58$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.36 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 25c | 322.72$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 24c | 312.02$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef87…d589backed Yes | 25c | 280$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Yes | 24c | 224.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 221.72$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 25c | 199$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 24c | 195.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 75c | 180$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb676…48c7backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 23c | 85.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 75c | 83.44$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked No | 76c | 82.55$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe261…08e3backed Yes | 25c | 80.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…ec70backed Yes | 25c | 59.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x925a…4961backed Yes | 24c | 47.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…67b5backed No | 77c | 19.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…874fbacked No | 77c | 16.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…095fbacked No | 77c | 15.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 76c | 14.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 76c | 14.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 57 | 78.9%45 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…eaf6backed No | 78c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OGC Nice win on 2026-01-17?this page
- Will Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?No won
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-01-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.