Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c65eb11669cd9b0fe62d8d816984b21240c249a577f1e0b236ccf87e768b870
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked No | 73c | 3,441$2,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.04 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 79c | 1,786$1,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +18.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 1,691$1,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.75 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 27c | 1,567$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.19 | 127 | 38.6%49 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,260$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.02 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 22c | 1,035$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.01 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…46cdbacked No | 79c | 707.13$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 80c | 662.23$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.46 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 25c | 625.41$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.62 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Yes | 27c | 624.36$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.58 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 79c | 512.41$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.61 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 28c | 407.14$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Yes | 6c | 368.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 252.56$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed No | 72c | 216.17$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e73…e5c1backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 15c | 171.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -58%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 73c | 129.63$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b1…7a56backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed No | 79c | 89.29$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…5284backed No | 80c | 81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 28c | 64.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…04b2backed No | 79c | 60.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 73c | 52.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc81…e072backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 204 | 54.4%111 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…d4e8backed Yes | 28c | 48.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc16…492bbacked Yes | 28c | 43.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…6fb4backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed No | 77c | 28.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 78c | 27.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +329.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed No | 73c | 19.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…f28fbacked No | 73c | 14.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…874fbacked No | 73c | 14.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa94b…925fbacked No | 73c | 14.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…6f90backed No | 73c | 13.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…e191backed No | 74c | 13.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toulouse FC vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?this page
- Will OGC Nice win on 2026-01-17?No won
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-01-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.