MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf8677473806370854ef010ac1621cd4f7bb7d7c0a8eaa6ef6ed7c0f3cb504b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 54c | 11,523$6,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,203.51 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 69c | 10,581$7,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,279.65 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 12c | 6,765$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.06 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 45c | 4,885$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,679.95 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 34c | 2,269$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.26 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 67c | 1,968$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.84 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 77c | 1,620$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.48 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked Under | 51c | 980.49$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.49 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb340…1ad1backed Under | 64c | 969.44$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 33c | 597.54$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.19 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 67c | 415.97$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.27 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed Under | 55c | 361.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.44 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Over | 12c | 349$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Over | 12c | 339.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94f1…b9e7backed Under | 62c | 309.92$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.77 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 67c | 308$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x625a…867ebacked Under | 47c | 249$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…8a9bbacked Over | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…7dd1backed Over | 39c | 137.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 52c | 132$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Over | 13c | 129$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Under | 72c | 123.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 52c | 117.62$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c5…f991backed Over | 13c | 107.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c5…3d6fbacked Under | 55c | 107.67$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Under | 67c | 85.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 59c | 82.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 47c | 79.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Over | 30c | 69.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked Over | 15c | 68.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf9…dde4backed Over | 61c | 44.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.31per pick | 53cpaid | -65%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Under | 44c | 43.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Under | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 77c | 38.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Under | 74c | 38.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Under | 64c | 36.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e2…3ba7backed Under | 53c | 35.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 67c | 35.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 67c | 35.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…83adbacked Under | 67c | 35.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…94cfbacked Under | 67c | 35.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 69c | 28.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Athletics won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Athletics won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-5.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.