Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 63°F or below on February 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf8e63daf70f92c0bb124d9199f4915ea43ed626bc3f42eabf6ce02b894c66ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 4,500$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.99 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fc…01d0backed Yes | 7c | 1,623$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.09 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 3c | 560.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e5…a381backed Yes | 9c | 420$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 399.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339f…165fbacked Yes | 6c | 367.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3f…3578backed Yes | 5c | 324.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa685…c2b3backed Yes | 22c | 312.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 6c | 308.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 4c | 289.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86eb…76f0backed Yes | 12c | 254.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9435…e478backed Yes | 9c | 251.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc69…1f8bbacked Yes | 12c | 245.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7323…2f6cbacked Yes | 16c | 184.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 79c | 128.95$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ba…91e9backed Yes | 13c | 113$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 20c | 99.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c5…f7fdbacked Yes | 23c | 85.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 81.78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed Yes | 17c | 73.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…648fbacked Yes | 26c | 63.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 80c | 62.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b65…0815backed Yes | 19c | 57.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 79c | 46.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked No | 75c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe983…a371backed Yes | 24c | 44.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed Yes | 28c | 42.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 74c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb9…9dbabacked Yes | 30c | 35.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 31.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 19.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 63°F or below on February 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 64-65°F on February 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.