Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 64-65°F on February 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37f1b9c6cc2f9d7481e7e32ed6c249dae8a10f627360a3a77afb79105b8be9b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 15c | 626.15$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 41c | 438.6$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.91 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 42c | 386.71$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.91 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 353.73$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 56c | 344.09$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.61 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 49c | 318.11$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.27 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 26c | 277.73$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 25c | 211.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.15 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…958bbacked Yes | 64c | 194$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked No | 17c | 180.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 69c | 160.57$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.49 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 26c | 132.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…e50abacked Yes | 50c | 120.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 115.83$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 66c | 112.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 111.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.07 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 37c | 107.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…c6cebacked No | 67c | 106$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 28c | 102.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.54 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 74c | 100.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…722ebacked Yes | 37c | 98.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d7dfbacked Yes | 38c | 96.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 27c | 89.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.21 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 68c | 84.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes | 38c | 78.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 71.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1417…38afbacked No | 71c | 71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…a7d6backed Yes | 35c | 69.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 27c | 65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 38c | 64.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…e95cbacked Yes | 50c | 62.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 60.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6422…a30ebacked Yes | 42c | 60.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 45c | 56.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Yes | 36c | 52.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 38c | 51.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked No | 76c | 50.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 38c | 47.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 35c | 45.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 59c | 44.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x324b…3fe4backed Yes | 34c | 44.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 63c | 42.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 39.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…46a3backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb71c…97efbacked No | 71c | 39.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 71cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 35c | 38.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3f…3578backed No | 65c | 34.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 75c | 33.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 57c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f87…9120backed Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…30b5backed No | 62c | 30.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeff…7353backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e4…1377backed Yes | 36c | 29.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea4…2bd2backed Yes | 62c | 24.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 65c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…593dbacked No | 74c | 23.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 76c | 20.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 63c | 18.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 76c | 17.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 72c | 15.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 64-65°F on February 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 63°F or below on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.