Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on February 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35567f0e095a423dedfbde631e7aa0a12de99c41c3eccb755e84c9e5ad6e98ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed Yes | 1c | 858.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…2e45backed Yes | 7c | 842.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 79c | 437.26$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.86 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed Yes | 23c | 435.41$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.62 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 42c | 340.6$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.64 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 12c | 331.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 55c | 324$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.59 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 313.02$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 24c | 218.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.83 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 15c | 171.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed Yes | 48c | 117$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e37…0939backed No | 66c | 116.87$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…722ebacked Yes | 49c | 113.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 110.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 108.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 103.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 36c | 90.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 21c | 86.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 83.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2802…9c82backed No | 47c | 79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 70c | 78.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 61c | 70.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeff…7353backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 49c | 59.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a9…4890backed Yes | 18c | 59.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 37c | 54.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 60c | 48.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 46.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 53c | 46.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…2722backed No | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3f…3578backed No | 60c | 43.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 55c | 38.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 72c | 36.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed No | 45c | 36.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed Yes | 50c | 35.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eec…9d96backed No | 56c | 34.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 60c | 33.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 50c | 32.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f87…9120backed Yes | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 31.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…958bbacked No | 68c | 29.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 68c | 29.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…afdebacked Yes | 53c | 28.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…648fbacked No | 63c | 27.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…426ebacked Yes | 59c | 24.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 57c | 20.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…09acbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4498…c984backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…7462backed No | 58c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e5…a381backed No | 58c | 19.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe273…e74bbacked No | 64c | 18.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed No | 61c | 16.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 70c | 16.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4d…5bd5backed No | 65c | 15.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 65c | 15.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d381backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc552…c3abbacked No | 75c | 13.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on February 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 63°F or below on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 64-65°F on February 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.