Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Basilashvili
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafb77ec5dd3a56b4f629777b96963fb39b22e1d49bcded6bfa0e42f713425ad8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Basilashviliof Nakashima, Basilashvili
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fbc…095ebacked Basilashvili | 42c | 759.96$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Basilashvili | 49c | 613.1$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.1 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nakashima | 58c | 603.49$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.02 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Nakashima | 46c | 598.53$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.66 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3191…e118backed Basilashvili | 47c | 236.6$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nakashima | 53c | 224.6$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.04 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e38…54b6backed Nakashima | 16c | 205.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Basilashvili | 41c | 187.93$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.93 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Nakashima | 59c | 182.93$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.93 | 547 | 46.8%256 W · 291 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…ef2fbacked Nakashima | 65c | 154.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Basilashvili | 42c | 118.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Basilashvili | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Nakashima | 58c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Basilashvili | 39c | 70.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nakashima | 56c | 66.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed Basilashvili | 45c | 61.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 323 | 33.4%108 W · 215 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Nakashima | 58c | 50.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Basilashvili | 42c | 49.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Basilashvili | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5f…6cecbacked Nakashima | 57c | 47.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 277 | 49.8%138 W · 139 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…79e0backed Nakashima | 73c | 41.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 181 | 58.6%106 W · 75 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Basilashvili | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b9…7e45backed Nakashima | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 68cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Basilashvili | 79c | 34.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 303 | 39.9%121 W · 182 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Basilashvili | 79c | 32.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Nakashima | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Nakashima | 58c | 29.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Nakashima | 58c | 29.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Nakashima | 58c | 29.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 2,044 | 53.8%1,100 W · 944 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Nakashima | 53c | 23.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,028 | 43.3%445 W · 583 L | -24.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd6…fd33backed Nakashima | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Basilashvilithis page
- Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Brandon Nakashima vs Nikoloz BasilashviliNikoloz Basilashvili won
- Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Basilashvili (+1.5)Basilashvili won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.