Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Basilashvili (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8da8dedcda71e5fa5a3841322e941a45ec315128ea1f7c62bb4763145c85f8e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Basilashviliof Nakashima, Basilashvili
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Basilashvili | 65c | 1,514$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.9 | 798 | 55.9%446 W · 352 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Nakashima | 35c | 1,402$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.19 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Nakashima | 38c | 497.27$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.96 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Basilashvili | 63c | 427.81$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.81 | 309 | 48.9%151 W · 158 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Nakashima | 37c | 273.94$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 457 | 51%233 W · 224 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Nakashima | 36c | 210.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…0e56backed Basilashvili | 63c | 191.74$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 283 | 50.5%143 W · 140 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Nakashima | 39c | 166.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 547 | 46.8%256 W · 291 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Basilashvili | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 363 | 49.6%180 W · 183 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Basilashvili | 62c | 162.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…0efebacked Basilashvili | 63c | 157.14$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…0fd1backed Basilashvili | 63c | 116.79$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Nakashima | 38c | 100.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…2c42backed Nakashima | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Basilashvili | 61c | 92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 191 | 51.8%99 W · 92 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Nakashima | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Nakashima | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ae…320fbacked Basilashvili | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Basilashvili | 59c | 67.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Nakashima | 35c | 66.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Nakashima | 37c | 57.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Nakashima | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe321…b456backed Basilashvili | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Basilashvili (+1.5)this page
- Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Brandon Nakashima vs Nikoloz BasilashviliNikoloz Basilashvili won
- Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs BasilashviliBasilashvili won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.