NHL · resolved market
Spread: Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafd0975079ffedb58e013e16fffdf853a730c5b96b4e2931c1dbbb57db5318ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Rangers, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa645…0be6backed Rangers | 36c | 1,692$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Red Wings | 64c | 1,544$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.91 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df1…53aebacked Rangers | 35c | 600$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Rangers | 36c | 372$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.92 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd800…f075backed Red Wings | 65c | 350$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceab…cce0backed Red Wings | 65c | 250$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4c…1d5dbacked Rangers | 34c | 157$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbd…8e99backed Rangers | 34c | 152.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c30…0bf3backed Red Wings | 66c | 152$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Red Wings | 64c | 149.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac1…8dc4backed Red Wings | 66c | 129$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Rangers | 36c | 109.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Red Wings | 64c | 93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Red Wings | 65c | 61.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Red Wings | 64c | 61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaab…a7c6backed Rangers | 35c | 57.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Rangers | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Red Wings | 64c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Red Wings | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Red Wings | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Red Wings | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Red Wings | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Red Wings | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 173 | 56.6%98 W · 75 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Red Wings | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Red Wings vs. RangersRed Wings won
- Red Wings vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Red Wings vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.