Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-04-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafd3387798169ef9a30b9cf54a14cfe27549dc9dbe9548975f0908a61331b0e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed Yes | 4c | 10,488$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 5c | 5,521$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.62 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 13c | 4,396$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.47 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 2c | 4,393$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 11c | 3,977$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.87 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 8c | 3,695$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.59 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…9b55backed Yes | 10c | 3,658$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.14 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 10c | 3,523$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.05 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…b202backed Yes | 13c | 3,327$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 11c | 2,566$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.37 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd10c…0645backed Yes | 3c | 2,215$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3d27backed Yes | 10c | 1,776$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2c…dfe7backed Yes | 10c | 1,719$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 4c | 1,607$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…0607backed Yes | 11c | 1,549$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.39 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…6e7abacked Yes | 9c | 1,197$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Yes | 11c | 1,100$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe612…ee20backed Yes | 10c | 1,088$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85e5…9343backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e7…68d2backed Yes | 12c | 686.72$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…b181backed Yes | 10c | 684.9$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e3…f2c9backed Yes | 11c | 680.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 12c | 669.8$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…969bbacked Yes | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 7c | 594.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bc…ddb7backed Yes | 11c | 584.05$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…17bfbacked Yes | 10c | 516.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 3c | 498.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…ef64backed Yes | 11c | 430.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8accbacked Yes | 11c | 416.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d4…e54ebacked Yes | 11c | 337.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…2a61backed Yes | 11c | 309.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 10c | 295.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…3302backed Yes | 10c | 283.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f0…b809backed Yes | 10c | 256.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed Yes | 10c | 245.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ff…6672backed Yes | 11c | 215.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…a390backed Yes | 11c | 189.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 11c | 182$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 10c | 175$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 12c | 170.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…bad8backed Yes | 11c | 163.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Yes | 11c | 159.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 12c | 137.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 10c | 134.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cb…c6e8backed Yes | 11c | 129.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce2…2d0ebacked Yes | 12c | 118.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7387…ccf1backed Yes | 11c | 109.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc28c…6fb2backed Yes | 11c | 94.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-04-11?this page
- Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.